Israel’s airstrike on a meeting of Hamas’ exiled political leadership in Doha, Qatar, on Tuesday sent shockwaves through the Middle East and raised serious questions about the reliability of US security guarantees for its Gulf Arab allies.
The attack, which targeted a meeting mediating US-backed negotiations to end the Israel-Hamas war, occurred despite Qatar hosting the largest US military base in the region and being designated a “major non-NATO ally.”
Plumes of smoke rose over Doha, a city renowned for its World Cup stadiums and luxury malls, underscoring the vulnerability of even heavily fortified areas.
While Israel has targeted Hamas leaders abroad since the October 7th attack on southern Israel, this was a significant escalation. Previously refraining from striking Hamas’s political office in Qatar, a key mediator and US ally, Israel’s actions jeopardized ceasefire talks and damaged regional stability.
Analysts suggest the strike was a dangerous gamble, poisoning negotiations and raising concerns about sovereignty and the international order. The incident also raised doubts about the effectiveness of the US security umbrella in the region.
Qatar, long criticized for hosting Hamas, had secured the group’s political office in Doha with US support, aiming to facilitate indirect communication. The Qatari government believed that its status as a major US non-NATO ally, combined with the presence of Al Udeid Air Base, the headquarters of US Central Command, offered sufficient security.
However, the Israeli strike shattered this perception, occurring despite US missile batteries and radar systems tracking aerial threats. The US claimed to have given prior warning, but Qatari officials stated they received notification only as the bombs fell.
The strike’s impact extended beyond Qatar, rattling nerves across the Gulf Arab states. Despite past ideological differences, the Gulf nations expressed unified condemnation, highlighting the indivisible nature of their security.
The incident exacerbated existing concerns about the US’s reliability as a security partner, potentially accelerating the diversification of alliances by countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, who are increasingly turning towards China and Russia.
The attack also significantly diminishes prospects for expanding the Abraham Accords, jeopardizing future normalization efforts between Israel and other Arab nations.
