The crown prince of Abu Dhabi picked up the phone and called Tehran. His country spent years fighting Iranian proxies in Yemen. His country normalized relations with Israel specifically to counter Iran. Now he wanted to talk.
The call happened in 2021 as America prepared to leave Afghanistan. Gulf Arabs watched that withdrawal with horror. They saw America abandon allies who fought alongside them for twenty years. They wondered if America would abandon them too.
That phone call started a regional shift. The UAE sent a diplomat to Tehran. Kuwait started talking to Iran about disputed gas fields. Saudi Arabia held secret meetings in Baghdad with Iranian officials. The old American strategy of isolating Iran began crumbling.
The Gulf Arabs never trusted Iran. They never will. But they also stopped trusting America to protect them. When Iran attacked Saudi oil facilities in 2019, America did nothing. When Iran seized ships near the strait, America sent warships but could not stop the seizures. American guarantees looked weaker every year.
So the Gulf states started hedging. They kept their American alliances but opened channels to Tehran. They reduced rhetoric against Iran in their media. They explored economic ties that might give Iran reasons not to attack them.
Iran welcomed this shift. They always wanted the Gulf Arabs to deal directly with Tehran instead of through Washington. Direct deals mean America loses leverage. Direct deals mean Iran gains legitimacy as a regional power.
The Biden administration tried to stop this trend but could not. They wanted the Gulf Arabs to stay unified against Iran. They wanted maximum pressure to continue. But their own actions undermined their message. When you abandon allies in Afghanistan, others notice. When you cannot protect oil facilities, others adapt.
