The loudest sound at this year’s premier Asian defense forum was the relative silence from Beijing. As defense chiefs and military experts gathered in Singapore for the annual 23rd IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, one big question dominated the halls: “Where is China?” For the second year running, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun chose to skip the free-wheeling security summit, leaving regional allies shocked and deeply disappointed by the sudden absence of high-level Chinese representation.
By skipping the massive three-day summit, Dong Jun missed critical opportunities to hold face-to-face talks with United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He also avoided meetings with his counterparts, the defense ministers of Australia, France, Britain, Japan, and other prominent Indo-Pacific nations. Instead of sending a high-powered delegation of top military brass as it had in previous years, Beijing dispatched a low-profile group of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) experts and academics to represent the country.
This low-key presence has forced major changes to the summit’s schedule. Historically, a highlight of the annual program has been a robust, closely scrutinized speech by China’s defense minister outlining Beijing’s defense doctrine and outlook on rising global tensions. However, due to the minister’s absence, the summit organizers had to completely drop the Chinese speech from this year’s official program. This marks the second consecutive year the highly anticipated address has been cut from the schedule.
Even U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth took note of the empty seat during his own keynote address on Saturday. Hegseth told the crowded room that he wished his Chinese counterpart had attended the conference. He added that he looks forward to future opportunities for the two militaries to cross paths and communicate directly to ensure that actions at sea or in the air are not misperceived. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles echoed his disappointment, calling China’s absence a major lost opportunity for countries to have frank, face-to-face talks regarding dangerous regional flashpoints.
This sudden, quiet retreat from the security forum does not mean China is ignoring the United States. In fact, Dong Jun did meet with Hegseth in person during U.S. President Donald Trump’s high-stakes state visit to Beijing earlier this month. This suggests that Beijing is intentionally shifting its foreign policy away from regional and multilateral forums and toward direct, bilateral “big power” diplomacy with the Trump administration. After Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a new “constructive strategic stability” framework last week, China wants to avoid public confrontations or hostile questioning in front of its regional neighbors.
However, some veteran diplomats downplayed the significance of the missing Chinese minister. Bilahari Kausikan, a highly respected former Singapore diplomat, told reporters that the Shangri-La Dialogue has always primarily been about anchoring the United States in Southeast Asia. He explained that the most critical goal of the 23-year-old event is to ensure that the American defense chief visits Singapore and Southeast Asia at least once a year. Kausikan stated that while having the Chinese defense minister present is nice, it remains a secondary factor and is not essential ftothe fforum’s success
China has a long history of participating in the security summit, which was first launched in 2002. The country began sending a high-powered military delegation to the event in 2007. It dispatched its defense minister to Singapore in 2011 and again in 2019. It continued this high-level practice from 2022 to 2024, right after the summit reopened following a two-year suspension due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The decision to skip the event for two years in a row represents a major break from this established bureaucratic routine.
The mystery surrounding China’s military plans comes at a highly volatile time for the region. As international blockades and shipping crises in the Middle East drive global fuel inflation up by an extra 1.5%, regional security anxieties are reaching a boiling point. Countries across the Asia-Pacific are scrambling to upgrade their militaries, pushing collective defense spending past a massive $300 billion annually. The ongoing military buildup in the region has driven up defense costs significantly, with nations like Japan and South Korea spending billions to purchase advanced drone fleets and missile defense systems.
Ultimately, China’s quiet presence at the Shangri-La Dialogue leaves the region with more questions than answers. While the United States continues to build strong military coalitions with its Asian allies, Beijing appears content to manage its security issues behind closed doors in private meetings. Until China decides to return its defense minister to the public stage, regional allies will have to navigate these growing security challenges with a constant sense of uncertainty, wondering exactly what Beijing plans to do next.
